Market Report | February 2023

REGO 

  • Prices for CP21 REGOs (April 2022 to March 2023 generation) remain historically high but have declined over the past few weeks.
  • Prices for CP22 (April 2023 to March 2024) production remain stable in the Mid £8s/REGO for now. A few more sellers in the market have taken advantage of the prices to lock in some guaranteed forward returns.
  • We’re entering uncharted territory in CP22 with the removal of the EU GoOs in the UK market, so some sellers are adopting a wait-and-see approach in anticipation of higher prices.
  • Removal of the GoOs will represent a significant drop in supply in the market.
  • However, this may be partly offset by some high wind winter months and new wind and solar assets coming online throughout the compliance period.

“CP21 pricing has slowly declined over the past few weeks; now might be a good time to lock in remaining volumes.”

Mike Ridler, Head of Green Markets at C-Zero
Mike Ridler
Find out about the team

“The Crop RGGO prices gains continue at an unprecedented rate.”

Mike Ridler

RGGO

  • Prices continue to rise with a strong demand for Crop certificates
  • Crop prices are now closing in on Waste, begging the question of how high can Crop go?
  • The General Court of the European Union decided to annul Sweden’s exemption from energy and carbon taxes for non-crop-based biogas.
  •  Non-ISCC Waste prices have stalled as waste certificate supply in Europe increases due to decreased demand, as Swedish buyers hold off awaiting an appeal of the ruling.
  • ISCC Waste Certs are still commanding high price levels, especially when they can be coupled to gas from the AD plant.
  • There has been an increase in interest by plants looking to gain ISCC and DENA accreditation to increase certificate values further.

“RTFCs Continue to feel pressure from low biodiesel prices.”

Bruce Brown

Bruce Brown

Director at C-Zero
Find out about the team

RTFC market lacking liquidity and trades

  • Prices continue to be subdued for both 2022 and 2023 volumes
  • Biodiesel prices still low, with little indication that a rebound in pricing is on the horizon, which in turn is keeping RTFC prices depressed
  • Bids hard to come by, with speculative bids coming in at the mid/high 20s, but holders are unwilling to trade those levels with offers at around 31p
  • RTFC for NC biomethane at current prices worth just over 8p/KWh for 2022 and just under for 2023
  • 2023 certs still trading at a discount to 2022 due to obligated parties still having plenty of time to meet obligations
  • Instead of blending, the replacement cost of RTFC stands at around 28p.
  • C-Zero has 2022 and 2023 NC RTFC volumes available for serious offers.

And finally….

We’re delighted to exhibit at The World Biogas Expo 2023 (29- 30 March 2023). You will be able to visit us at stand A509.

The World Biogas Expo will be back in 2023. It’s the world’s leading trade expo dedicated to the anaerobic digestion and biogas industry, providing the latest market and technology news, sector by sector, and a platform for industry professionals from the UK and overseas to network, share experiences, and do business.

Attendance at the event is entirely FREE, but you must book in advance. 

Sign up at www.biogastradeshow.com.

Join us 29-30 March 2023, Hall 8, NEC Birmingham. We look forward to seeing you! #MakingBiogasHappen #WorldBiogasExpo2023

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