Market Report | December 2023

REGO

After a few months of continuous upward movement in the REGO market, prices peaked in October at £24.80 across all technologies. A reversal of over 60% followed this as prices dipped below £10, with only small volumes trading over the first half of November.
In the second half of November, the market picked up pace again, suggesting a correction rather than a lack of consumer appetite.
As we move into winter, more accurate weather forecasts for temperature and wind generation will give a better insight into REGO supply and customer demand. There are also rumours that some big suppliers are pulling away from offering REGO-backed tariffs on their standard variable tariff (SVT), which would reduce demand
With so much volatility in the current Compliance Period: we see very little trade in CP23 and CP24 whilst off-takers review their forward strategy and requirements.

Unfortunately, there was another month of thin demand for RGGOs, with only a small number of enquiries from European buyers looking for the certs to be transferred to DENA accounts.
Waste and Crop certificate prices continue their slow decline to the psychological barrier of £20/MWh, with some producers holding out for more, but most are just looking for a bidmarket levels. Given recent market volatility, this could serve as a hedge for producers for at least some of their forward volumes.
Interest in biomethane remains high, with significant corporations still interested in biomethane GPAs with the RGGOs attached. Traditionally, the RGGOs have been uncoupled from the GPAs, but this could change with many producers out of contract on their RGGOs.
C-Zero attended EMEX (UK Net- & Energy Management Expo) in London last month. It was encouraging to note that the larger Biomethane producers were prominent and their stands very busy.