Market Report | November 2023

REGO 

  • We have seen an unprecedented upward movement in REGO prices over the past few months, reaching up to £24/REGO.
  • With large volumes of certificates now entering the market as asset owners and certificate holders try to take advantage of the high prices, we are starting to see prices significantly soften back into the teens.
  • It is still being determined if we have seen the market’s peak, with pricing increasingly volatile.
  • Interest in future compliance periods is starting to open up with spot contracts looking at CP23 £16-£19/REGO, CP24 £10-12/REGO for certificate holders looking at their forward positions.
  • We are still seeing some interest in CP21s for corporate offtakers.

“In October, we have seen record prices achieved in the REGO market.”

Clare Haigh, Head of Environmental Markets at C-Zero
Clare Haigh
Find out about the team

” RGGO prices are still in a slow decline as demand from Europe dries up “

Clare Haigh

RGGO

  • RGGO trades have been thin on the ground this month, but sellers are beginning to get used to the new reality of lower prices.
  • Waste and Crop certificates have fallen further and are now close to parity at around the low £20’s, with some Crop trades just below the £20 mark.
  • RGGOs from 100% waste plants still command a bit of a premium, mostly from European buyers, and we’re seeing some demand for Waste with ISCC accreditation, with prices in Europe close to 50 Euros/MWh.
  • The REA Green Gas Day earlier in the month was very well attended, and it was interesting to see some different faces from other industries as well as the usual producers, service providers and Utility buyers.
  • There has been increased interest from corporates in securing supplies of Biogas, with notable deals done between Future Biogas and Astra Zeneca seemingly just the tip of the iceberg.
  • The Government has extended the deadline for applications to the Green Gas Support Scheme (GGSS) to 31st March 2028, citing difficulties in commissioning AD plants and securing feedstocks, which further boosts the Green Gas sector.

“RTFC price collapsed but stable”

Bruce Brown

Bruce Brown

Head of Client Partnership at C-Zero
Find out about the team

RTFC market lacking liquidity and trades

  • This last month has seen the lowest prices in 4 years for RTFC tickets, bottoming out at around 14.5p trades. Recovery has been moderate to c.15.5p for crop and non-crop certificates. 2024 tickets are now trading at similar pricing to 2023, although some might say that seems undervalued.
  • The main driver for the price collapse is the increase in gasoil cost, coupled with the fact that crop-based biofuels have remained cheaper than waste-based feedstock, leading to more blending of those single counting feedstocks with the low spread to gasoil.
  • RTFC/RHI spread stands at 1.24p/KWh for waste-fed biomethane (based on 3p RHI) at current prices worth 4.24/KWh for 2024 and 2023 certificates.
  • Due to the low spread in blending, some large trades have been locked in at the depressed pricing. C-Zero has recently seen over 20m certs traded where traders and end users are keen to take advantage of the current position.
  • Holding on for higher prices seems prudent. Please get in touch with us if you’re looking for up-to-date pricing and certificate bids.