Market Report | November 2024

REGO 

We are seeing more buying interest from suppliers. There are still some questions around the buying requirements for their domestic tariffs but there still looks to be significant corporate demand.

RECS hosted its first UK REGO Conference this week, an indication of how the REGO market has developed in the last couple of years, key themes were:

  • Full Disclosure – call for the move to certify the origin of every MWh of electricity produced regardless of fuel source to allow for more accurate data and ultimately provide greater transparency of the UKs fuel mix. It additionally allows customers to make more informed decisions when choosing tariffs.
  • Willingness to Pay – given the price volatility seen over the past couple of years, questions around what premium consumers are prepared to pay for renewable tariffs.
  • 24/7 REGO Matching – mixed views on whether this will promote further investment into renewables and flexible assets or provide unnecessary complexity in the market.

 

CP22 is currently achieving around £1.75/REGO.

CP23 is currently trading between £4 – £4.55/REGO.

CP24 is currently trading between £4 – £4.60/REGO.

REGO price graph

‘CP23 prices remain on a slight downward trend’

Clare Haigh - Head of Environmental Markets at C-Zero
Clare Haigh
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“Another month where 2023 demand dominated and 2024 certs played second fiddle”

Mike-Ridler-CEO

Mike Ridler – CEO at C-Zero Markets

RGGO

  • 2023 RGGOs continued to be relatively bullish in November with a small uptick in prices.
  • 2023 Crop was still preferred but this may not be the case for long. Crop and Waste/Residue are now nearing price parity as, for the first time we’ve seen, buyers will not pay a premium for Waste/Resi.
  • 2024 non-ISCC prices remained flat with limited trades reported. Crop/Product is trading in the mid £7s/MWh and Waste/Resi in the mid £10s/MWh.
  • As we head into 2025, we should see buyers looking to cover their 2024 positions, which should bolster demand.
  • European buyers continue to show interest in ISCC certs but UK RGGOs have to compete against Danish, Dutch and German ISCC volumes. These are trading in the €13-€15 range and some have negative CI scores.
  • Buyers are beginning to look again at longer term offtake agreements out to 2027 with pricing in the mid/high teens depending on feedstock, CI Score and ISCC accreditations. This might suit some producers who are looking for some certainty for a proportion of their output.
  • Given the high prices in the past, producers have been reluctant to lock in at the lower relative prices but given the volatility, we’re beginning to see more interest in protecting future cash flows.
RGGO price graph

“EU Carbon remains volatile”

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Susanne McKay

Green Markets Manager
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CARBON

  • The EU Carbon Market has remained volatile throughout November.
  • After seven-month lows in October with EUAs languishing in the low €60s/ton, there was a rebound during the first few weeks of November, with prices increasing to the high €60s/ton.
  • Prices started to decline slightly towards the end of the month due to warmer weather, with resultant lower physical demand adding bearish sentiment.
  • Prices have shown a tight correlation with Dutch TTF gas and traders do not appear to be building long positions as yet.
  • Prices are expected to increase towards the end of the year as seasonal Northwest European power demand kicks in.
  • Take a look at our latest blog to see how carbon credits can help address emissions targets: Scope 1, 2 and 3 Emissions – finding the right solution for the right emissions type – C-Zero Markets
EUA price graph

“EuGO market is still dominated by oversupply’

IMG_5090

CCO – Chief Commercial Officer

EUGO

  • After October’s lows there was a further fall in GO prices following the closure of Germany’s 2023 disclosure window on the 1st November.
  • With the exception of 2023 volumes, GOs then rebounded across all other vintages before plateauing towards the end of the month due to reduced trading activity.
  • Despite the general rebound, the market is still dominated by oversupply. Significant GO rollover from 2023 and high renewable generation continue to influence the market.
  • Some sellers do not appear to be bringing their GOs to market, choosing instead to hold out for potentially higher prices or retain GOs for later disclosure periods.
  • It will be interesting to see if year-end selling pressure plays a role in December trading – and whether year-end buying demand comes into play.
GoO Price Graph - November