Market Report | January 2025
REGO
- It has been a relatively slow start to 2025. CP23 has been very illiquid as buying interest looks to have declined, particularly for Bio certs which are not considered to be as “deep green” as their Wind, Solar, Hydro (WSH) counterparts.
- We have seen WSH trade in the low £1s, which probably sits below most analysts’ “low price model scenario” at the beginning of the year.
- We expect to see more action at the end of the Compliance Period as suppliers get a final picture of the numbers and look to balance their position.
- CP24 and CP25 prices have also been relatively flat although we’ve seen a number of sizeable trades for CP26 and CP27 as suppliers look to forward hedge.
“CP23 still on a sharp decline”
Clare Haigh - Head of Environmental Markets at C-Zero
“RGGO trading off to a quicker start than anticipated in 2025, but prices remained stable”
Mike Ridler - CEO – Chief Executive Officer
RGGO
- At the start of 2025, RGGOs hit the ground running with a flurry of trades across all vintages.
- 2023 Crop and Waste remain in demand, but prices have not moved and are languishing in the mid to low £6s, with little price differential between these techs.
- 2024 Crop traded in the mid to low £7s early January but bids were in the high £6s towards the end of the month. Some sellers might be wise to take this given the amount of 2024 RGGOs available.
- According to the latest report from the GGCS in October 2024, there was 1.5 TWh of 2024 RGGOs from Q1,Q2 &Q3 available in producer and trader accounts, which have not been retired or cancelled.
- 2024 Waste (Non- ISCC) has yo-yoed between mid £9s to low £10s but sellers have so far resisted lower bids.
- ISCC accredited Waste requirements from 2023, 2024 and 2025 have been seen from European buyers, thinking they can beat the Danish and Dutch prices, but without much success. ISCC Waste has traded at around £11.50, which is roughly in line with the Euro equivalent prices in the EU.
“Rising gas prices drive uptick in carbon pricing”
Susanne McKay
Green Markets Manager
Carbon
- Poor weather in Northern Europe and the continued impacts of the cessation of Russian gas flows through Ukraine has driven an increase in gas prices, translating across to rising carbon prices.
- EUAs have climbed above €80/mt and UKAs topped £45/mt.
- Given increased uncertainty around European gas markets, in the short term the market is looking bullish – and is likely to remain elevated in February and March during peak European power demand.
- There are some tentative signs of recovery in European industrial demand, but manufacturing – which is crucial to carbon demand – remains relatively weak.
- Further forwards, ongoing uncertainty around US trade tariffs may impact European economic growth and put downward pressure on pricing.
“GO market activity remains muted”
CCO – Chief Commercial Officer
EuGo
- The market remains long across all vintages.
- Trading has been muted, with buyers looking like they may be holding for further price falls.
- January’s EEX GO auction did little to stimulate trading activity.
- EU solar 2025 saw a slight uptick following a AIB wind/solar/hydro trade
- Regulation changes as part of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) may start to have an impact in 2025 and drive some increase in demand – although this doesn’t appear to be influencing market dynamics as yet.
