Monthly Report | December 2024
REGO
- In today’s report we reflect on the REGO market in 2024.
- At the beginning of the compliance period, we saw an upward trend with bio trades peaking at £8.60/REGO and WSH trades peaking at £9/REGO.
- Since May we have seen a gradual decline in prices, with the lowest recorded trades at £2.90/REGO in early Q4, a price decrease of over 210%. However, we have seen further strength at the end of Q4, bringing prices back up to the £4/REGO mark.
- Whilst we have seen some volatility in this compliance period with the market dropping by 22% on one day in October. Overall, it has been relatively stable compared to the price moves we saw in CP22 where prices fluctuated between £6.45/REGO and £24.80/REGO.
- It is thought the main drivers for this price decrease is centred on higher than forecast renewable generation coupled with a shift in buyer behaviour – some energy suppliers are moving away from offering renewable tariffs as a standard within the domestic market. Instead, they are focusing on low carbon offerings, which has led to a decrease in demand.
- Prices have softened across the curve, in part due to the success of the recent CFD rounds and the anticipated additional renewable capacity which will be bought online. We are however still seeing strong corporate demand, so it will be interesting to see what Q1 2025 brings.

“CP23 relatively stable compared to CP22 – a look back at 2024”
Clare Haigh - Head of Environmental Markets at C-Zero
“After several years of gains, 2024 saw the RGGO market finally have a correction”
Mike Ridler - CEO – Chief Executive Officer
RGGO
- 2024 saw RGGO prices steadily decline against a backdrop of continued market and regulatory uncertainty although they did bounce in mid 2024 and remained steady for the rest of the year.
- European gas consumption was lower due to continued effects on supply from the Ukrainian war, lower industrial demand and a mild 2023/24 winter.
- Uncertainty about the implementation of the Union Database and if UK volumes can be included made buyers more cautious of contracting UK RGGO for use in Europe.
- The GHG protocol remained “on the fence” about the use of RGGOs/Green Gas Certs for use in offsetting Scope 2 emissions further damping buyers’ confidence that Green Gas Certificates could be used in their carbon offset efforts.
- On a positive note, the EU reversed its decision to outlaw the Swedish tax exemption scheme for imports of Biogas. They had ruled in December 2022 that the Swedish tax scheme was unlawful, which was a major factor in UK RGGO prices dropping steeply in 2023 and 2024 as a significant volume of RGGOs being imported into Europe were sent to Sweden. However, the effect on prices remains to be seen.
- The market remained relatively flat at the end of 2024 even with a flurry of activity as buyers rushed to fill positions before the Christmas break. 2024 RGGOs were in the demand at the beginning of 2024 while 2023 certificates were more heavily traded towards the end.
- At C-Zero we are quietly positive about 2025 as many of the market and regulatory headwinds mentioned above are on track to be resolved.

“No return to the record highs of last year”
Susanne McKay
Green Markets Manager
Carbon
- After a dip back towards the low €60s/mt in mid-December, the end of the month delivered an uptick in pricing. On the back of seasonal power demand and a fall in volumes being brought to auction, prices recovered to four-month highs of over €70/mt.
- After the heady heights of c. €100/mt carbon prices last year, this year’s pricing has been more measured.
- Prices have hovered around the €60 – €75/mt bracket throughout the year.
- Sluggish economic growth across the Euro zone in 2024 and reduced industrial activity depressed demand.
- Despite lower prices, trading platforms have reported increasing volumes, signalling healthy market participation and good liquidity.
- Increased reliance on renewable energy, and reductions in gas-to-coal switching, has led to prices starting to decouple from TTF. However, suspension of Russian gas flows through Ukraine due to the cessation of the gas transit agreement on Jan 1st may drive increased gas-to-coal switching and bolster demand in early 2025

“December concludes a challenging year for GO pricing”
CCO – Chief Commercial Officer
EuGo
- There has been an almost constant downward trend in GO prices throughout the year.
- The decline is primarily due to market oversupply – driven by increased renewable energy production in the European Economic Area.
- In particular, the influx of Nordic hydro GOs has pushed prices lower.
- On the back of the requirement for RE100 companies to obtain certs from sites <15 years old, 2024 has seen demand shift to newer generators.
- The number of GO transfers increased at a higher rate than issuances, so despite the falling prices there has been robust market participation and good liquidity.
- General sentiment as we look ahead is that increasing demand on the back of sustainability reporting requirements will reverse 2024’s downward trend.
