Monthly Report | December 2024

“CP23 relatively stable compared to CP22 – a look back at 2024”

Clare Haigh - Head of Environmental Markets at C-Zero
Clare Haigh

“After several years of gains, 2024 saw the RGGO market finally have a correction”

Mike Ridler Profile picture
Mike Ridler - CEO – Chief Executive Officer

RGGO

  • 2024 saw RGGO prices steadily decline against a backdrop of continued market and regulatory uncertainty although they did bounce in mid 2024 and remained steady for the rest of the year.
  • European gas consumption was lower due to continued effects on supply from the Ukrainian war, lower industrial demand and a mild 2023/24 winter.
  • Uncertainty about the implementation of the Union Database and if UK volumes can be included made buyers more cautious of contracting UK RGGO for use in Europe.
  • The GHG protocol remained “on the fence” about the use of RGGOs/Green Gas Certs for use in offsetting Scope 2 emissions further damping buyers’ confidence that Green Gas Certificates could be used in their carbon offset efforts.
  • On a positive note, the EU reversed its decision to outlaw the Swedish tax exemption scheme for imports of Biogas. They had ruled in December 2022 that the Swedish tax scheme was unlawful, which was a major factor in UK RGGO prices dropping steeply in 2023 and 2024 as a significant volume of RGGOs being imported into Europe were sent to Sweden. However, the effect on prices remains to be seen.
  • The market remained relatively flat at the end of 2024 even with a flurry of activity as buyers rushed to fill positions before the Christmas break. 2024 RGGOs were in the demand at the beginning of 2024 while 2023 certificates were more heavily traded towards the end.
  • At C-Zero we are quietly positive about 2025 as many of the market and regulatory headwinds mentioned above are on track to be resolved.

“No return to the record highs of last year”

Susanne McKay

Green Markets Manager

“December concludes a challenging year for GO pricing”

IMG_5090
CCO – Chief Commercial Officer

EuGo

  • There has been an almost constant downward trend in GO prices throughout the year.
  • The decline is primarily due to market oversupply – driven by increased renewable energy production in the European Economic Area.
  • In particular, the influx of Nordic hydro GOs has pushed prices lower.
  • On the back of the requirement for RE100 companies to obtain certs from sites <15 years old, 2024 has seen demand shift to newer generators.
  • The number of GO transfers increased at a higher rate than issuances, so despite the falling prices there has been robust market participation and good liquidity.
  • General sentiment as we look ahead is that increasing demand on the back of sustainability reporting requirements will reverse 2024’s downward trend.GoO Graph 2024