European Biomethane Certificate Market Report 2026
Following a period of policy uncertainty across UK and European renewable gas markets, 2026 represents a pivotal year for biomethane certificates, renewable gas guarantees and low-carbon fuel compliance.
While absolute volumes remain modest relative to total gas consumption, developments through 2025 — including subsidy extensions, regulatory progress and growing corporate demand — have provided clearer signals on how biomethane and certificate markets are likely to evolve into 2026 and beyond.
This report provides a data-led, practical assessment of the policy, commercial and pricing dynamics shaping the European biomethane certificate market, designed to support producers, traders, obligated parties and corporate buyers navigating procurement and risk in the year ahead.
Key Drivers & Market Fundamentals
The report examines the structural drivers underpinning biomethane and certificate markets as they move into 2026, including policy support, supply growth and certification maturity.
Key themes include:
- The role of the Green Gas Support Scheme (GGSS) in underpinning UK biomethane production and RGGO issuance
- The impact of the extended GGSS commissioning window, improving near-term investment certainty
- How mandatory separate food waste collections in England from 2026 are expected to expand feedstock availability
- Continued maturation of the Green Gas Certification Scheme (GGCS), strengthening confidence in certificate integrity and supply consistency
How biomethane certificates intersect with emissions reporting
Commercial interest in biomethane continued to broaden during 2025, with corporate offtake increasingly moving from reputational commitments toward structured, multi-year procurement strategies.
The report explores:
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Growing demand from industrial, manufacturing and pharmaceutical buyers
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The role of renewable gas certificates (RGGOs) in corporate decarbonisation planning
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Ongoing dialogue around how biomethane certificates are treated under GHG Protocol Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions frameworks
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Why accounting clarity remains a key constraint — but not a barrier — to near-term corporate demand
RED III, transport compliance and cross-border impacts
European regulatory developments remain a critical influence on biomethane pricing and certificate allocation.
This report assesses:
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Germany’s implementation of RED III, and how anticipated rule changes have already influenced forward buying behaviour
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Spillover pricing effects across neighbouring European markets
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The emergence of FuelEU Maritime as a structural demand driver for bio-LNG and low-carbon biomethane
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How transport and maritime compliance markets are increasingly competing with grid-injected biomethane for limited supply
Upside and downside price risks for 2026
The report outlines a balanced assessment of market risks, highlighting where price support or pressure may emerge over the coming year.
Upside risks include:
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Structural demand from transport and maritime compliance
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Continued tightness in UK biomethane supply
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Growing interest from continental European buyers
Downside risks include:
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Ongoing uncertainty around formal Scope 1 recognition under the GHG Protocol
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Potential acceleration of AD capacity and biomethane injection
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Persistently low wholesale gas prices affecting voluntary demand
Looking into 2026, the European biomethane certificate market appears set for incremental but structurally important development.
Rather than a year of dramatic volume growth, 2026 is likely to act as a bridge year, where improved policy clarity, maturing certification infrastructure and evolving corporate demand lay the foundations for deeper market scale-up later in the decade.
For producers, buyers and traders, this evolving landscape reinforces the importance of data-led insight, risk management and forward planning as renewable gas and certificate markets continue to integrate across borders and sectors.
